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Showing posts from September, 2020

Governments are (very likely) irrelevant

  Although “action bias” and “political partisanship” all but guarantee that people will be making governments responsible for the consequences of the pandemic at a national level, I do think that drawing conclusions on government policies from the number of deaths (or any other relevant covid19 related variable) is a very risky business: 1.- Deaths per million is a variable with a "probability distribution" 2.- The shape of this distribution very likely depends on several drivers that can be clustered into two main categories: "Non-actionable drivers": like average age, population density, genetics, prevalence of pre-existing conditions, "base" level of people interaction (very likely higher in Puerto Rico than in Stockholm), etc. "Actionable drivers": like lockdowns, mask wearing, rapid test availability, social distancing, health system preparedness, etc... 3.- These drivers "define" the shape of the distribution, but